Monday 26 March 2012

Do Lottery Systems Really Work?

There are many so called ‘lottery systems’ that claim to have more chances of predicting what lottery balls are likely to come up that say a ‘lucky dip’. But as any true statistician will tell you, there is no such thing as a formula that can work any better than you randomly selecting your own numbers for any one lottery ticket.

Of course, by buying multiple tickets for one draw certainly improves your odds against winning, but it’s hardly a formula.

Having said that, there is one true story that does make you think that maybe there is something to be said for a ‘system’.

A group of 17 university professors and tutors from Bradford University set a lottery syndicate in 1994 when the National Lottery was first launched. At first, each member used to randomly select a line of their own with the syndicate buying 17 tickets for every draw.

After years of failing to win anything other than the odd £10, the syndicate decided to come up with a formula to help improve their chances of winning.

The Formula

Playing the Lotto game where you have to correctly match 6 numbers from 1-49, the syndicate wrote out each number on a piece of paper and put them into a box.

Next, the first syndicate member pulled 6 pieces of paper out of the box. These numbers then made the first line. The six pieces of paper where then placed into a second box.

This process continued until 8 of the members had chosen their numbers using up 48 of the 49 pieces of paper. That left just one piece of paper remaining in the first box. The ninth member of the syndicate then used the remaining number in the first box to start his line, adding 5 numbers from the second box to complete his line. He then placed all 6 numbers back into the first box.

This process again continued for the next 7 lines at which point there were only two numbers left in the second box. The final member of the syndicate then used those two numbers, plus 4 more picked from the first box again, to complete the final line.

The syndicate now had 17 lines which included all of the numbers from 1 to 49 at least twice and four of the numbers three times.

Not satisfied with that, they then created a computer programme that helped then check their tickets after each draw. All they had to do was input the winning numbers and the bonus ball and the computer programme told them which if any tickets had won.

For the next four years, the syndicate continued to win the occasional £10 but on eventually it came good. On Saturday 6thOctober 2006, they hit the jackpot winning £5,299,849 netting each member £311,755.82p each.

At the time, a spokeswoman for Camelot (operators of The National Lottery) said they were aware of the system employed by the university syndicate.

She said: “We are not overly concerned by it as everybody has a method of trying to win. However, we would say that being in a syndicate does increase your chance of a win as one in four jackpots goes to a syndicate.”

I’ll leave it up to you to decide if it was just luck or the formula that won them the jackpot. I’m off to find 16 friends to join my syndicate.

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